ASML lifts 2026 guidance as Q2 sales rise 21%

ASML's Q2 sales have risen by nearly half in two years#

ASML's second-quarter 2026 US GAAP statements put sales at €9.3265 billion, up 21.3% from €7.6917 billion in Q2 2025. The Q2 2024 SEC-filed statements show sales of €6.2428 billion. Sales therefore increased 23.2% from Q2 2024 to Q2 2025 and 21.3% in the latest year, a cumulative 49.4% increase and a 22.2% two-year compound annual growth rate.

Service and field-option sales rose even faster, from €1.4819 billion in Q2 2024 to €2.0956 billion in Q2 2025 and €2.7617 billion in Q2 2026. That is an 86.4% two-year increase. These sales represented 23.7%, 27.2% and 29.6% of total sales respectively, showing how revenue from ASML's installed equipment base has become a larger part of the quarterly mix.

Profitability strengthened alongside sales. From Q2 2024 to Q2 2026, gross margin increased from 51.5% to 54.0%, operating margin increased from 29.4% to 37.1%, and net income rose 84.9% to €2.9176 billion. In the latest year alone, operating income grew 29.7%, net income grew 27.4% and basic earnings per ordinary share rose 28.6% to €7.59.

How much ASML raised its full-year outlook#

The April release guided to €36–40 billion of 2026 sales and a 51–53% gross margin. Against 2025 sales of €32.667 billion, that sales range represented 10.2–22.4% growth, with 16.3% at its €38 billion midpoint.

The Q2 beat also had a clear installed-base component. Service and field-option sales of €2.7617 billion were €0.2617 billion, or 10.5%, above ASML's approximate €2.5 billion April guide. Gross margin of 54.0% was 2.0 percentage points above the top of the 51–52% range. Management's second-quarter transcript says the installed-base business was about €300 million above expectation and was the main reason sales and margin exceeded Q2 guidance; that is management's rounded description of the same operating upside.

The July release raised the sales range to €43–45 billion, equivalent to 31.6–37.8% growth over 2025 and 34.7% at the €44 billion midpoint. The low end increased €7 billion, or 19.4%; the midpoint increased €6 billion, or 15.8%; and the high end increased €5 billion, or 12.5%. ASML also raised every point of its gross-margin range by 3.0 percentage points, from 51–53% to 54–56%. Range midpoints are arithmetic summaries, not management point forecasts.

The raised outlook points to stronger second-half growth#

First-half sales reached €18.0934 billion, up 17.2% from €15.4332 billion a year earlier. The new full-year range implies 31.6–37.8% growth over 2025, so it points to a faster reported growth rate in the second half if ASML delivers within the range.

Subtracting first-half sales from the €43–45 billion outlook gives €24.9066–26.9066 billion of implied second-half sales, displayed below as €24.9–26.9 billion. That would be 44.5–56.1% above the €17.2338 billion reported in the second half of 2025. At the range midpoint, full-year growth would be 34.7% and second-half growth would be 50.3%.

ASML guided to €11–12 billion of third-quarter sales, approximately €2.9 billion of service and field-option sales, and a 55–57% gross margin. System acceptance timing, product mix, upgrades and customer schedules can still shift the quarterly path inside the annual range.

Orders and capacity support the higher outlook#

ASML stopped disclosing quarterly bookings in 2026 after explaining that purchase-order timing made the number lumpy and not always a reliable measure of business momentum. Across the eight quarters of 2024 and 2025, disclosed net bookings ranged from €2.633 billion to €13.158 billion, with a median of €5.470 billion. The two previous second quarters were close to that median: €5.567 billion in Q2 2024 and €5.541 billion in Q2 2025.

The last disclosed quarter was a record €13.158 billion in Q4 2025, including €7.4 billion of EUV orders, and ASML ended 2025 with a €38.797 billion backlog. The April 2026 release said order intake continued to be very strong. In July, management called first-half order intake “extremely strong” and said it had received close to all the EUV orders needed for 2027. The historical figures establish the scale of prior disclosures, but they are not a lower bound, upper bound or estimate for the undisclosed 2026 intake.

The capacity plan provides a separate operating reference. ASML described a 2026 base of around 65 low-numerical-aperture extreme ultraviolet, or EUV, systems and around 130 deep ultraviolet, or DUV, immersion systems, with roughly 30% more capacity planned for 2027. Applied mechanically, those rounded inputs point to capacity for about 85 low-NA EUV systems and 170 DUV immersion systems in 2027. They are ballpark capacity figures, not booked units, shipments or revenue.

ASML is also investigating another roughly 30% capacity increase for 2028. Progress will depend on supplier capacity, ASML's manufacturing execution, customer-site readiness and system acceptance. Export controls and changes in customer schedules can also affect when an order becomes reported sales.

ASML's moat remains in EUV despite DUV competition#

Competition is not symmetrical across lithography. ASML's 2025 Form 20-F identifies Canon and Nikon as its principal competitors in DUV systems, while ASML says it remains the only lithography-equipment supplier producing EUV technology. That leaves ASML's moat strongest in EUV: customers requiring EUV do not currently have a second supplier of complete scanners. Canon and Nikon remain meaningful competitors in DUV, but neither is a like-for-like competitor to ASML's EUV systems.

Canon competes in krypton-fluoride, or KrF, DUV, i-line and packaging applications and is developing nanoimprint lithography as a different patterning approach. Its first-quarter 2026 results say it sold 44 semiconductor lithography systems in the quarter and expects 238 systems in 2026, up from 234 in 2025, as memory and advanced-packaging demand rises. Canon says its nanoimprint system has entered customer evaluation and validation that simulates production, with progress toward mass-production adoption in 2027. That remains a development milestone, not evidence that nanoimprint has replaced EUV in high-volume manufacturing.

Nikon is the closer optical competitor in argon-fluoride, or ArF, dry and immersion DUV. Its results for the year ended March 2026 show Precision Equipment revenue falling 17.2% to ¥167.2 billion and the segment moving from a ¥1.5 billion operating profit to a ¥4.5 billion loss, partly because of lower ArF system volumes and impairment charges. Nikon's May 2026 investor Q&A nevertheless reports strong demand and inquiries from multiple major chipmakers for its ArF systems. Canon's and Nikon's figures use different currencies, reporting periods, segment scopes and product mixes, so they show competitive direction rather than a like-for-like financial ranking.

The metrics to monitor next#

Start with the third-quarter range: €11–12 billion of sales, approximately €2.9 billion of service and field-option sales, and a 55–57% gross margin. Compare the actual figures with all three measures because a higher total can come from different system, upgrade and service combinations.

Next, follow system sales, service and field-option sales, gross margin and operating margin together. The second quarter combined 17.3% system-sales growth with 31.8% service growth and a 2.5-percentage-point operating-margin increase. Future quarters will show whether that mix persists as ASML scales output.

For demand, look for the annual backlog disclosure and management's description of order coverage rather than converting qualitative language into a quarterly number. For capacity, distinguish planned capacity from systems actually ordered, shipped and accepted.

Finally, compare reported second-half sales with the €24.9–26.9 billion implied by the full-year range, and follow whether Canon reaches its lithography unit plan and Nikon converts reported ArF inquiries into improved Precision Equipment results. Those measures connect ASML's higher outlook with both execution and the competitive response.